(I posted this article 20 hours ago on Twitter as Tweets)
Hariri announced today that he is quitting as Prime Minister of Lebanon’s government. To understand the Middle East, I will explain the background and expose historical facts.
Russia, Iran, Syria ruled by Assad and Hezbollah have been killing anyone opposing their hegemonial plans of the region since decades. Their plan is to kick out the U.S. from the Middle East and isolate Israel. And U.S. has almost the same plan, but at least U.S. is willing to share, while the axis of evil does not want to share. Ousting the U.S. from the Middle East would mean isolating Israel and attacking it, as such U.S., Europe and Israel will be in the defensive position and this will be economically exhausting. This is the strategy they used from 1950 till 2011.
In 2009, U.S. administration led by former President Obama began secret talks with Iran through Trita Parsi. Obama was willing to get out of the Middle East, if Iran opens its markets for U.S. However, Iran backed by Russia fooled Obama and fooled Europe too in Iran Deal. (P.S.: This does not mean the Iran Deal should have never occurred, but at least not under these conditions and not without plans B and C, Mr. Obama).
Luckily, the U.S. Army worked against Obama’s policy and even partially against Trump’s policy (P.S.: An intelligent politician would NEVER say under any circumstances that U.S. created Qaeda or ISIS except if he is low IQ and wants the Middle East to hate U.S. more than anything in this world)
Back to the subject, knowing the goals of the U.S. and Russia is important to understand role of Lebanon. Lebanon’s structure is different from all other countries in the Middle East. Knowing the U.S. and Russian goals and their current “allies” or tools is important to understand who is with who against who.
You must understand that Sunni extremists are used by everyone and they don’t need to be created, they pop up permanently. Sunni extremists seriously believe that Islam is Allah’s religion, they must expand the Caliphate, convert people to Islam and other stuff, which are mind blowing for a rational person living in 2017. However, because Sunni extremists are so brainwashed with myth, they are also easy to manipulate by everyone.
Why I am mentioning Sunni extremists?
Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, Syria Assad falsely claim and convinced millions that they are fighting Sunni terrorism. They created the term Wahhabi word for several reasons – although Wahhabi is same school as Hanbali, Hizb Al Tahrir, Muslim Brotherhood and Iran’s Twelver Shiism. But why they falsely use the term Wahhabi? They use Wahhabi:
- They don’t anger all Sunni.
- They split Sunni in camps, pro/contra fighting each other instead of them.
- They hit U.S. indirectly by falsely accusing it of supporting terrorism because Wahhabi means Saudi Arabia.
- To oust U.S. from the Middle East, Russia axis Iran, Assad and Hezbollah and newly PMU use Sunni extremists to expand, but everyone thinks it is U.S., which uses Sunni. Indeed U.S. too uses Sunni, it learned from Russia, see my report on Robert Dreyfuss, in which I corrected his wrong claims about Afghanistan and Qaeda.
Lebanon is ca 35% Sunni, 35% Shiite, 25% Christians, 5% Druze and others.
- The Shiite in general are pro-Iran, it is a religious aspect since 1400 years and empowered through the Safavid era under Ismael I.
- The Sunni majority are pro-Saudi, some minor numbers are Nasserites, some ISIS, Qaeda, Hizb Al Tahrir and of course Muslim Brotherhood.
- Christians and Druze are split between both camps Sunni vs Shiite.
- Sunni took away power from the Christian president.
Christians are powerless but still have 50% of the parliamentary seats despite their shrinking number compared to 1926.
- Shiite have weapons and power of rule. They took over major Christian positions like internal security and others. They wanted also the Command of the Army too but failed.
To be able to take away power from Sunni, Shiite did not give up weapons like all other fractions post-Taef, under pretext they are a “resistance” while they are in reality an Islamic Resistance Arm of Iran’s Islamic Imamah. Instead they began assassinating Sunni and pro-Sunni Christians who wanted to disarm them and establish a real country, including their current Christian ally, President Michel Aoun. Keep in mind as you read the thread that the goal of Russia, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah is to kick out U.S. and to weaken its regional allies.
Who are the U.S. allies in Lebanon?
Obviously, those who are not pro-Russia and Iran:
- Sunni majority except MB (Muslim Brotherhood)
- Pro-Sunni Christians also called March 14
What is March 14?
On Feb 14, 2005 Syria and Hezbollah assassinated Rafic Hariri, the father of current PM Saadeddine Hariri. As a reaction, Lebanese patriots called to oust Syria, which was occupying Lebanon since 1976 and used it to fight Israel and the United States. Hezbollah made a great 1 MILLION demo on March 8, 2015 in support of Syria: “Syria must stay, we love Syria.” Later Hezbollah accused Zionists as usual of killing Hariri.
On March 14, 2005 Lebanese Christians, Druze, and Sunni made a 1.5 MILLION demo to oust Syria: Syria killers out. They accused Syria of killing Hariri.
The March 14 alliance isolated Shiite and meant end of Hezbollah. Hezbollah panicked and began killing more politicians and civilians opposing it. Terrorizing the enemy is part of Hezbollah’s strategy, without leaving fingerprints though.
At the same time Hezbollah lied as usual and denied its involvement in killing Hariri. Hezbollah always lies, Nasrallah lied about the Marines 1983, later Iran erected a huge statue hailing the suicide bombers. Hezbollah denied its involvement in Bosnia and Kosovo in 1992, later in 2015 Nasrallah himself admit Hezbollah was in Bosnia/Kosovo. This is called Taqqiya and Kitman. He had to admit to use it for his gain as “defender” of Sunni.
So, Hezbollah was killing Sunni and pro-Sunni Christians in Lebanon post-2005 to terrorize them, but at the same time it was trying to break their ranks and achieved it end 2005.
End 2005, Hezbollah allied with Christian Aoun against Sunni Hariri and Christian Geagea. Druze split too, Jumblatt with Hariri, Arslan with Hezbollah. As such whoever wins, Christians and Druze will not pay the price.
Syria had killed Jumblatt’s father, Gemayel’s father during the war, a Russian-Assad strategy so that each fraction gets busy fighting someone and as such Assad can play the “hero” and “savior” like Putin.
Syria and Hezbollah used SSNP and other gangs, including Sunni terrorists to kill March 14. As I said, Hezbollah and Assad do the planning and logistics but execution is someone else. Everyone remembers the criminal – if found out – but no one remembers who was behind the criminal.
But why were Hezbollah and Syria able to break ranks of Christians and get AOUN! The one who fought them for a decade! The one who led Christians to lose the war, together with Geagea and Gemayel. The very Aoun who drafted 1559 against Hezbollah!
It is because of several factors:
- U.S. played a very DIRTY game to please Saudi and screwed the Christians of Lebanon several times.
- Sunni since 1400 yrs attack Christians and in Taef took their power – the last “Christian country” in the Middle East. (Edited in appreciation to the remark of Dr. Bachir El-Nakib; Please Note: The 1400 years being attacked by Sunni is how Christians perceive it. They are dishonest when Sunni are present but that is how they perceive it. This is also a reason why Lebanese never solved their problems. Their relationship is not based on trust and brotherhood.)
- Hezbollah and Shiite in general master the skill of deception, the art of persuasion with lots of lies and Taqiyah.
- Aoun’s ego seeking power since 1988! Back then SUNNI opposed his presidency and boycotted him.
Once Lebanon was split, Hezbollah wasn’t isolated anymore. The assassinations didn’t stop because Hezbollah was emboldened. Instead, Hezbollah even tried to take Beirut in 2008.
What did the U.S. and the West do?
To checkmate Hezbollah, Iran and Russia, the West tried to pass a bill at UN but Russia vetoed it. So the West funded and established the Special Tribunal of Lebanon. However, the STL couldn’t achieve anything because Hezbollah was too strong and did not adhere to law. But it remained “stand-by”, a card to be waived against Assad and Hezbollah.
When Hezbollah got busy killing Syrian Sunni, the assassinations stopped in Lebanon otherwise Assad and Hezbollah would still be killing till they achieve their goal of take over.
Does this mean the U.S. created ISIS?
No, Qaeda the mother of ISIS existed in Syria. Hizb Al-Tahrir the mother of Qaeda existed since 50s. And their great-great-grandma always existed, deeply rooted in the Islamic teachings.
Several elements played a role for creation of ISIS. Mainly, because Sunni countries were angry because Iran funded the Arab Spring and had been trying to convert Sunni to Shiism and spread.
So, because Iran funded all Arab Spring in North Africa, the North African released their jailed Islamists and sent them to Assad and Iran with love.
Why did Iran fund the Arab Spring in North Africa?
- To topple the pro-U.S. governments and exchange them with pro-Russian and Iran governments. They favored Muslim Brotherhood as it goes along with Iran Twelver.
Hence, Lebanon was split, yet created the STL despite veto of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Russia in UN, Syria Assad in international forums. However, the STL failed to bring justice. Hariri and many other politicians fled to foreign countries or made deals with Hezbollah to survive in Lebanon.
- To save his life, M Saadeddine Hariri even offered Assad to preserve Hezbollah weapons if they let him come back and become Prime Minister.
In 2015, U.S. allowed Lebanon to begin its bidding for oil and gas at its shores in a deal between Obama-Iran/Hezbollah. Berri, the puppet of Hezbollah, appeared at the ministerial cabinet and made all sign. They signed, because all will get a piece of the cake. All Lebanese ministers Sunni, Shia, Christians, Druze signed the oil agreement, but did not tell the Lebanese, they carried on fighting publicly.
Now the Syrian war apparently has a “winner” called Russia (not really, but Hezbollah, Iran, Russia think so). This means Hezbollah is emboldened again, and thinks it can take all Lebanon. Whether Hariri was directly or indirectly threatened remains a thing only intel and Hariri-Kreis know.
However, for Hariri to quit as a show like Hezbollah is claiming is a pure lie. It is not a U.S.-Saudi game either.
Hariri has a lot to lose by quitting, they are replacing him with a pro-Hezbollah Sunni and things will go on.
Iran and Russia rule Lebanon currently, the U.S. is trying hard through the Lebanese Army to penetrate Lebanon, but it won’t succeed are my latest information.
What can happen now?
It is possible that AOUN would give up his alliance with Hezbollah if Sunni give back Christians the power they lost post-Taef.
Aoun also has business with Iran, which means Saudi will have to compensate it somehow so he quits on Hezbollah.
I expect a begin of a direct war between Sunni and Shia in Lebanon if Hariri doesn’t return under his conditions as PM.
What are Turkey’s and Qatar’s roles in Lebanon’s dilemma?
Both support MB and will welcome appointing an MB as PM. Iran has been pumping MB with money already in last years, so expect an MB as PM. But expect a contra from U.S., Israel, Saudi and other Lebanese and Arab Sunni.
Joumana Gebara – Senior Middle East Analyst.